Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token Faces Critical Test as $500M Monthly Unlocks Approach

The HYPE token from Hyperliquid is entering what some analysts are calling a “Sword of Damocles” moment, with a massive $500 million in monthly unlocks set to start on November 29, 2025. This event could be the first true test for the token’s stability, as the long-awaited vesting schedule begins, potentially triggering significant selling pressure.

According to Arthur Hayes’ family office fund, Maelstrom, the 24-month vesting schedule will unlock $11.9 billion worth of HYPE tokens, distributed to team members over the period. Lukas Ruppert, a researcher at Maelstrom, noted that while buybacks could absorb only 17% of the monthly release, the rest could create a sizable overhang, leaving around $410 million in monthly supply that may depress the token’s price.

“Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid dev. You’ve worked insanely hard for years. A life-changing sum in tokens is starting to vest; and it’s only one click away,” said Ruppert, highlighting the potential for heavy selling pressure as devs realize their gains.

This vested release presents an increased risk for HYPE’s price stability, especially since digital asset treasuries (DATs) like Sonnet BioTherapeutics — which has a partnership in place with a new entity, Rorschach, for a $583 million HYPE treasury strategy — still pale in comparison to the upcoming token unlocks.
Hayes Sells HYPE Tokens, but Still Predicts Long-Term Gains
In a move that has caught attention, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, sold all of his HYPE tokens just before the unlock event. It’s reported that he used the funds to pay the deposit for a new Ferrari.

Despite liquidating his position, Hayes remains optimistic about HYPE’s long-term potential, even going so far as to predict a 126x rally for the token by 2028. Hayes originally made this bold prediction during the Webx 2025 Conference in Tokyo, citing continued fiat debasement as a driving force for the token’s future growth. He projects that if the market dynamics play out as he expects, Hyperliquid could see its annualized fees surge to $255 billion, up from $1.2 billion at present.

“Despite the volatility in the near term, the long-term potential is still there,” Hayes commented in a post.

At the same time, Hyperliquid is facing rising competition from Aster, a new decentralized perpetual exchange linked to Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). The Aster project briefly crossed $2 billion in total value locked (TVL) following the launch of its ASTER token, gaining traction as a rival to Hyperliquid in the derivatives DEX space.

This growing competition is likely no coincidence, as Maelstrom’s researchers pointed out that CZ’s involvement in Aster ahead of the HYPE unlocks is strategic.

“You don’t eat the crypto establishment’s lunch and walk away unchallenged. Business is war,” Maelstrom’s Lukas Ruppert said. The launch of Aster just ahead of the Hyperliquid unlock event suggests that Aster may be positioning itself to capture market share from Hyperliquid as the HYPE token faces potential selling pressure.

The approaching unlock event represents a critical moment for the HYPE token, with $500 million in potential monthly sell pressure. Analysts believe that Hyperliquid’s price could see increased volatility as tokens flow into the market, and current buybacks may not be enough to absorb the release of such a large amount of supply.

The strategy behind the unlocks, and the response from Hyperliquid developers and investors, will be pivotal in determining whether the token can weather the storm.
Looking Ahead: Long-Term Predictions and Market Sentiment
Even with the looming volatility, Arthur Hayes maintains his bullish outlook on HYPE in the long term, citing a larger trend of stablecoin adoption and crypto market expansion that could drive Hyperliquid’s revenue to new heights. He is known for his bold price predictions, with the Bitcoin market being another area he has famously forecasted for massive growth in the future.

Despite the short-term uncertainty, Hayes and others believe that HYPE could experience exponential growth, driven by long-term market trends.

However, with competitors like Aster rising and massive token unlocks on the horizon, Hyperliquid is entering a crucial phase that will test its market strength and its ability to manage potential selling pressure.

As Hyperliquid’s HYPE token approaches a pivotal moment with the vesting of billions in tokens, the market will be watching closely. The unlock event could either result in significant price volatility or be absorbed smoothly, depending on how the market reacts and whether developers and major stakeholders decide to sell or hold their vested tokens.

In the coming months, the crypto community will be keenly observing whether Hyperliquid’s long-term potential outweighs the risks associated with such a significant supply expansion. Only time will tell if HYPE can overcome its “Sword of Damocles” moment.